THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Rough Projected Gross: 45-50 mil
Actual Gross: 95 mil
Written by: Aaron Sorkin
What We Can Learn:
I'll give you the first trick to getting your movie to overperform. Cast Jesse Eisenberg. No really. If you remember, he was in one of the films from the last list (Zombieland). But seriously, the success of The Social Network was one of the bigger surprises of 2010.
Irony.
Don't believe me? I want you to go to any piece of marketing material you can find for The Social Network. Find me one shot or one video clip of the main character, Mark Zuckerberg, smiling. You can't can you? That's because there isn't one.
Rough Projected Gross: 45-55 million
Actual Gross: 167 million
Writers: Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig
What We Can Learn:
THE KING'S SPEECH
Rough Projected Gross: 25-45 million
Actual Gross: 135 million
Writer: David Seidler
What We Can Learn:
Raise your hand if you predicted before The King's Speech came out that the movie would gross over 100 million dollars. Anyone? Anyone?
To be honest, I'm surprised that all of these movies did so well. But a stuffy British costume drama rocking the box office was particularly surprising. People say the adult drama is dead, but you wouldn't know it if you counted the box office receipts from 2010.
So then what is it that made this film such a surprise success? Well, I've talked about it before. The King's Speech utilizes two of the most time-tested and well-worn story devices out there.
The first is the underdog. Stories always work when they have a good underdog in the lead role. You can sell an underdog story to anybody - doesn't matter if they're 7 or 77, especially if it's true. Seeing and enjoying people overcome adversity is in our moviegoing DNA.
The other device is the crazy mentor. I use the word "crazy" loosely, but people are just really familiar with that kind of character and love seeing them operate. But I think The King's Speech took it one step further and added - yes, there's that word again – irony. In this case, the situation allowed a nobody to stand up and demand things from the King of England.
There's just something funny and ironic about a peasant ordering around a King. Anyway, the combination of these two well tested tools are what made a stuffy period piece one of the sexier box office hits of the year. Yes I just used the word "sexy" in conjunction with The King's Speech.
BLACK SWAN
Rough Projected Gross: 20-30 million
Actual Gross: 110 million
Writer: Mark Heyman
What We Can Learn:
This is a great movie to study for today's purposes because every movie Darren Aronofsky had made up until this point had been a box office dud. His biggest film, The Wrestler, made only $26 million. So there was really no reason to believe Black Swan would do any better. In fact, with our subject matter dressed snugly in a leotard, it can be argued that this movie would've been lucky to hit the $10 million mark.
So I think this is a great lesson. Remember that when you're writing independent fare, you're fighting an uphill appeal battle. It's in your interest to make elements of your story clean and easy to understand. If you can nudge your narrative closer to a popular genre, like Aronofsky did here by making Black Swan a thriller, you can stay true to your indie roots yet still draw in a big audience. Oh, and it also doesn't hurt to add a sex scene between your two lead female characters.
INCEPTION
Rough Projected Gross: 90-120 million
Actual Gross: 292 million
Writer: Christopher Nolan
What We Can Learn:
I remember reading an article about this last month. In it, a reporter noted that Inception was a box office shock of epic proportions. Warner Bros. had made the movie to keep Christopher Nolan happy between Batman films. They had no idea it would become as big as it did.
Now I've made my feelings clear about this film. I think it's really flawed. Regardless of that, I believe the box office for Inception is trying to tell Hollywood something.
People want more challenging big budget fare. This may sound contradictory to what I just said about Black Swan. But actually I think the statement is complementary. Independent films need more audience friendly storylines. Big-budget films need more challenging storylines.
Hollywood is confused by this because it thinks audiences only want one or the other. I believe audiences are getting sick of the comic book movies and the mash up movies and the movies based on rides and the movies based on toys. They go to these films and feel empty afterwards.
At least when you left Inception, you thought about something. You talked about it with your friends. And those are the kinds of conversations that get people back into the theater a second and third time.
I think Hollywood is really missing out on the bigger picture here. The thing that the Internet has done is it's allowed conversations about movies to be had by millions. But Hollywood keeps giving these people movies that aren't worth talking about.
Now I know that Disney VP just came out with a statement proclaiming that story doesn't matter when you're making a tentpole flick, and pointed to the terribly written billion-dollar earner Alice In Wonderland as an example. I think there will always be a market for high concept well marketed family fare. But I also think that there's an appetite from the more serious moviegoers for big budget tentpole films that also make you think.
The thing is, those movies aren't being written. And the truth is there just isn't a lot of material out there that teaches writers how to successfully write these kinds of movies. You have to balance the challenging aspects of your screenplay with the high concept marketability of a big-budget picture. If you get too esoteric or "out there" than the movie no longer becomes thoughtful. It just becomes confusing.
Using our previous director as an example, Aronofsky wanted to make The Fountain for 100 million bucks. There's a good chance the box office for that film would've topped out at $10 million.
So really, it's up to you guys to figure this out. It's up to you guys to come up with these concepts that balance the two extremes. As always, it begins with the screenwriter. So get the fuck off Scriptshadow and start writing.
ScriptShadow: What We Can Learn from Five Box Office Surprises (Part Two)